Article Dans Une Revue Environment International Année : 2025

Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models

Naiqing Pan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Hanqin Tian
Hao Shi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Shufen Pan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Josep G Canadell
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jinfeng Chang
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Eric A Davidson
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Gustaf Hugelius
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Akihiko Ito
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Robert B Jackson
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Fortunat Joos
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Sebastian Lienert
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Dylan B Millet
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Stefan Olin
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Prabir K Patra
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Rona L Thompson
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Nicolas Vuichard
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Kelley C Wells
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Chris Wilson
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Yongfa You
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Sönke Zaehle
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Résumé

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is the most important stratospheric ozone-depleting agent based on current emissions and the third largest contributor to increased net radiative forcing. Increases in atmospheric N 2 O have been attributed primarily to enhanced soil N 2 O emissions. Critically, contributions from soils in the Northern High Latitudes (NHL, >50 • N) remain poorly quantified despite their exposure to rapid rates of regional warming and changing hydrology due to climate change. In this study, we used an ensemble of six process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Global Nitrogen/Nitrous Oxide Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) to quantify soil N 2 O emissions across the NHL during 1861-2016. Factorial simulations were conducted to disentangle the contributions of key driving factors, including climate change, nitrogen inputs, land use change, and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration, to the trends in emissions. The NMIP models suggests NHL soil N 2 O emissions doubled from 1861 to 2016, increasing on average by 2.0 ± 1.0 Gg N/yr (p < 0.01). Over the entire study period, while N fertilizer application (42 ± 20 %) contributed the largest share to the increase in NHL soil emissions, climate change effect was comparable (37 ± 25 %), underscoring its significant role. In the recent decade (2007-2016), anthropogenic sources contributed 47 ± 17 % (279 ± 156 Gg N/yr) of the total N 2 O emissions from the NHL, while unmanaged soils contributed a comparable amount (290 ± 142 Gg N/yr). The trend of increasing emissions from nitrogen fertilizer reversed after the 1980 s because of reduced applications in non-

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hal-04939779 , version 1 (11-02-2025)

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Naiqing Pan, Hanqin Tian, Hao Shi, Shufen Pan, Josep G Canadell, et al.. Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models. Environment International, 2025, 196, pp.109297. ⟨10.1016/j.envint.2025.109297⟩. ⟨hal-04939779⟩
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